On October 8, the first trading day following the National Day holiday, Wind data showed that among the 31 industries measured by the Shenwan Level 1 industry index, 10 industries rose while 21 declined, with an average change of -0.72%. Over the past decade, the average number of rising industries on the first trading day after the National Day holiday was 19.9, compared to just 10 this year.
Traditionally strong sectors such as electronics, telecommunications, and computers all fell collectively, while sectors that are typically weak 鈥?including oil and petrochemicals, coal, banking, utilities, and transportation 鈥?bucked the trend and posted gains. According to statistics, over the past 10 years, these five sectors had never simultaneously entered the top five gainers on the first post-holiday trading day.
Oil and petrochemicals rose 2.46%, ranking first among the 31 industries; utilities gained 1.64%, ranking second; transportation, coal, and banking rose 1.33%, 1.15%, and 1.03% respectively. Over the past decade, these five sectors had not been particularly outstanding on the first post-holiday trading day. Banking posted an average gain of 0.21% over the past 10 years, ranking 4th lowest among the 31 industries; transportation and coal both averaged 0.24%, tied for 5th lowest; utilities averaged 0.54%, ranking 10th lowest; and oil and petrochemicals averaged 0.78%, ranking 15th lowest. The average of the five sectors' mean gains over the past decade on the first post-holiday trading day was 0.40%, while today their average gain reached 1.52%. Over the past 10 years, these five sectors had never simultaneously ranked in the top five gainers on the first post-holiday trading day; in the previous best year, only three of them made the top five at the same time.
During the National Day holiday, international oil prices remained elevated, with Brent crude futures briefly breaking above $102 per barrel during intraday trading on October 7. Liu Wei, Investment Director of Ganguan Private Fund Management (Beijing) Co., Ltd., told a Securities Daily reporter that for resource chains such as oil and petrochemicals, oil prices, freight rates, and geopolitics 鈥?three holiday variables 鈥?are the profit drivers for these industries. Oil and petrochemicals offer both earnings certainty and low valuation advantages, making them a preferred direction for capital seeking both safe haven and offensive positioning.
On the declining side, the electronics sector fell 4.25% and telecommunications dropped 3.90%, ranking first and second in declines. Machinery and equipment fell 2.51%, pharmaceuticals and biotech declined 2.49%, media dropped 2.46%, automobiles fell 2.35%, and computers declined 2.02%. All seven of these industries posted declines exceeding 2%. Among them, computers, electronics, and telecommunications had previously performed well on the first post-holiday trading day over the past decade. Computers posted an average index change of 1.87% over the past 10 years, ranking first among the 31 industries; electronics at 1.47% and telecommunications at 1.40% ranked third and fifth respectively.
Wu Zewei, a special researcher at Suzhou Commercial Bank, told a Securities Daily reporter that single-day market movements are more of a short-term capital rebalancing driven by external disturbances and cannot be directly judged as a medium-to-long-term style shift. Going forward, it is necessary to verify the strength of domestic fundamental recovery and the level of earnings realization in growth sectors. A fundamental change in the main storyline cannot be determined based on a single day's market performance alone.