On Monday, October 12, gold climbed early in the session, touching a high of 4217 before pulling back quickly, with the US dollar index's fourth consecutive weekly gain serving as the core force capping bullion prices.

As gold turned lower, the daily candlestick has evolved into a bearish formation with a long upper shadow, and a bearish harami pattern is beginning to take shape, suggesting further downside in the near term.

The dollar's strength is the biggest external pressure on gold right now. The greenback has now risen for a fourth straight week, gaining nearly 3% over that span, the longest winning streak since early 2025, as safe-haven demand and global inflation worries drive capital into the US currency.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting showed most officials expect one more rate hike before year-end, and St. Louis Fed President Musalem stated clearly that rates should be raised over the next six to nine months. This hawkish tone provides sustained support for the dollar and directly suppresses gains in dollar-denominated gold.

However, this week's upcoming US CPI data could be a variable; if inflation pressure is confirmed to be under control, the market may further scale back rate hike expectations, limiting the dollar's upside.

On the technical front, the daily chart shows a clear bearish reversal signal. On the upside, resistance first centers on the morning high of 4217, followed by the 4-hour MA120 pressure point at 4232, which also marks the short-term bearish defense zone. Further up, resistance clusters around the daily SAR indicator pressure point at 4239 and the weekly Bollinger Band middle rail at 4247, forming a suppression band that constitutes the top of the box range for the first three days of the week. Until a body close breaks above this level, maintaining a sell-on-rallies approach remains reasonable.

On the support side, the first area to watch is the 4173-4168 range formed by the 1-hour Bollinger Band lower rail. If this zone is effectively broken, the next target is the 4155 level where the 4-hour MA60 and daily MA10 converge. The 4-hour Bollinger Band middle rail and daily MA5 also converge near 4151, which essentially defines the bottom of today's regular trading box.

In summary, the dollar's strong cycle has yet to show a clear turning point, and gold's short-term pressure is likely to persist. Trading should follow a box-range approach, with rebound shorting remaining the main strategy until key resistance is broken.

Gold reference strategy: Current price at 4185.

1. Short in the 4210-4215 zone, stop loss at 4221, targets 4200-4180-4168; 2. Long in the 4157-4152 zone, stop loss at 4145, targets 4175-4200-4212; 3. Short in the 4237-4247 zone, stop loss at 4255, targets 4200-4170-4150, hold if broken below.

During Monday's Asian session, international oil prices opened higher and then pulled back. WTI crude futures briefly approached $92.60 per barrel before falling back to around $89.86, while Brent crude dropped more than 2% to the $102.60 level. Market sentiment is being influenced by a mix of news, and the short-term direction remains unclear.

On the supply side, OPEC+ keeping production unchanged is offset by the IEA accelerating its reserve releases. The seven OPEC+ nations have decided to maintain current output quotas in November, pausing production increases for a second consecutive month, which provides some bottom support for oil prices. At the same time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to accelerate the release of strategic reserves, expected to inject about 100 million barrels of crude into the market, news that significantly weighed on prices last week.

On the demand side, the IEA also downgraded its global oil demand forecast, as the dampening effect of high fuel prices on consumption becomes apparent.

Technically, both the 1-hour and 4-hour Bollinger Bands for crude are developing in parallel, showing clear range-bound characteristics, while the daily Bollinger Band's three rails narrowing further confirms the market is waiting for a catalyst to break out of the regular range.

On the downside, support first references the 1-hour Bollinger Band lower rail at 89.7, with the more critical defense at the 4-hour Bollinger Band lower rail at 88.5, while the 87.3 level and last week's low of 86.8 form the bulls' last line of defense. On the upside, resistance focuses on the 92.5 level at the 1-hour Bollinger Band upper rail and last week's high of 93.2; a breakout above would bring the 95 pressure point and the daily upper rail at 95.8 into play.

In summary, the news flow lacks a one-sided driver, and crude prices are likely to continue ranging in the short term, with a sell-highs, buy-lows approach recommended.

Crude reference strategy: Current price at 90.7.

1. Short on rebounds in the 92.5-93.1 zone, stop loss at 93.6, targets 91.2-90.2; 2. Long on pullbacks in the 90.1-89.7 zone, stop loss at 89, targets 91.2-92.4; 3. Long at the 88.5 low, long at 87.5, stop loss at 86.5, targets 91.5-93.2-95.2; 4. Short in the 95-95.8 high zone, stop loss at 96.5, targets 93.2-91.2.