According to Woofun AI, the US spot Bitcoin ETF market experienced a withdrawal of $729 million over two trading days, a sharp fluctuation that coincided exactly with Bitcoin's price recovering to the estimated average purchase price. Investors viewed the return to the breakeven point as an exit opportunity rather than a signal for long-term holding, causing accelerated capital flight the moment positions turned profitable. This "break even and leave" behavior pattern reveals a lack of confidence among current market participants in the asset's long-term value, with short-term arbitrage logic dominating capital flows.
It is worth noting that although the overall market showed net outflows, there was significant divergence in performance among different funds, with some leading products even showing capital movements that deviated from the broader market, reflecting extreme differentiation in investor strategies. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart estimates that the average cost basis for US spot Bitcoin ETF holders is $81,722. When Bitcoin broke above that level in late September, holders' positions turned positive for the first time, but this buffer advantage lasted only two weeks. As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading at $81,607, down 2.2% from the previous day, pushing the average holding value slightly below the cost line once again.
Faced with the price decline, holders did not choose to wait and see but acted swiftly: on October 7, the market saw $484.9 million in net outflows, completely offsetting the previous day's $118.8 million in net inflows; on October 8, another $244.1 million flowed out. The selling wave over these two days erased early October gains, bringing the cumulative net outflow for the month to $407.4 million. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that this密集 trading around the breakeven point indicates the cost basis has transformed into a psychological resistance level preventing further buying, with investors preferring to lock in principal rather than pursue higher returns.
From the perspective of individual fund performance, capital flows show extreme structural divergence. Farside data shows that between October 1 and October 8, outflows from Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC.US) exceeded the entire market's total net outflows, with the fund seeing outflows on five of six trading days in October. In contrast, BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT.US) attracted $332.5 million in net inflows, becoming a safe haven in the market. Excluding IBIT, the total losses for the remaining ETFs amounted to $739.9 million. Even with IBIT's overall strong performance, it could not fully immune itself from market sentiment, experiencing its largest single-day outflow of $207.7 million on October 7.
This divergence indicates that selling pressure mainly comes from specific groups of investors rather than synchronized reductions across the entire market. FBTC's massive bleeding versus IBIT's contrarian inflows reflects fundamental differences in the investor structures behind different funds, with some capital likely conducting stop-loss operations in FBTC while seeking new allocation opportunities in IBIT.
This capital pressure is not limited to the Bitcoin space, as US spot Ethereum ETFs are also facing severe challenges. Data shows that spot Ethereum ETFs have experienced eight consecutive trading days of outflows, with cumulative losses of $641.3 million since September 29. Trends previously tracked by BeInCrypto show that during the rally from September 21 to September 30, spot ETFs were the primary buyers, absorbing over $2.3 billion in capital. However, current buying demand appears to be based more on short-term considerations of price levels rather than long-term bullish sentiment. Once prices move away from the breakeven point, whether these funds can attract new investors will become the key test of real market demand.
From a structural perspective, current market liquidity relies more on the breakeven effect brought by price rebounds rather than fundamentals-driven long-term allocation. If prices cannot sustainably hold above the cost line, the ETF market may face further risks of liquidity depletion.